This is a good general survey of the issues and not much can be debated about these rather balanced findings. I would say though that the general tone is a bit too optimistic for several reasons.

The information I have been digesting from ASPO and others indicates that we really do have a good idea of how much oil there is--about 2.5Tbbl--or was when drilling started in Titusville, PA in 1859. I agree with the author that we've used about 1 Tbbl but I question whether there will ever be a third or fourth Tbbl found. Moreover, the current global climate crisis suggests that even if such vast amounts of oil were found, burning it would be suicidal for our species, not to mention the fact that what you burn cannot be made into plastics, rubber, paints, dyes and everything else we depend on in a modern world.

Shale and tar sands are tempting targets but they represent several challenges including eROI, which the author alludes to and ecological damage from burning fossil fuels to cook the sands and bitumen, to the vast amounts of water needed to process it and the severe ecological damage that comes with strip mining the stuff out of the earth.

More than anything this paper's approach while well intended is that of a paradigm extender. It asks and answers the question of how we extend the life of the current energy paradigm, thus preserving the huge investment in infrastructure. The paper hints at the "trillions of dollars" required to build a new, electricity dominated infrastructure and then leaves it for some future generation to worry about.

The primary evidence supporting paradigm extension is the fiction that coal or any other fossil fuel can be made clean. Why invent a "Rube Goldberg" contraption to capture CO2? Why not simply cease producing it and encourage the biosphere to absorb it? There has been enough scientific research performed that shows that iron fertilization in the deep equatorial ocean is a possibility. The process needs some engineering work and the question arises Why not spend our engineering resources on biosphere CO2 absorption instead of carbon sequestration by mechanical means? After all, the oil in the ground was placed there by biosphereic processes.

When the author speaks about renewables, he omits any mention of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which is a grave mistake. Until we admit the need, for and relatively straightforward use of, EGS we will be in a situation where dirty fossil fuels like coal are required for power generation because they are needed to provide base load power. In such a scenario renewables can only provide power at the margin due to their weather related unpredictability. EGS cuts the Gordian Knot that ties fossil fuels and pollution to our need for electricity. Time to cut it.

All in all a good paper if it stimulates more discussion, but not a great one if you are looking for realistic solutions.

Thanks.

Thanks Margot euh.... Roland.